Forecasts for the demography and socio-economic development of the Sofia Municipality

The project presents forecasts for the demographics and socio-economic development of Sofia Municipality and the municipalities of the area of ​​active influence of Sofia for the period 2030 - 2040 - 2050.

The study was commissioned to Amadi EOOD under the guidance of Assoc. Prof. Iliya Kopralev in 2017. Statistical information from the NSI and departmental information systems was used. The forecasts come in three variants - pessimistic, optimistic and realistic. Territorial levels are: municipality, Independent settlements in Sofia Municipality, administrative regions of Sofia Municipality.

The analysis shows that the total population in Sofia Municipality is increasing. Three groups of settlements are being formed - with an increasing estimated number of inhabitants, with a stagnant number and with a decreasing number. The structure of the settlement network identifies two areas with good demographic development potential. The first includes settlements located near Sofia and the second is in the northern and eastern parts of the municipality (with higher demographic vitality, with terrain and infrastructure development opportunities).

The survey includes estimates of the age structures of the population with a view to clarifying the workforce, the number of users of budget social services (education, healthcare, social activities, culture, sports) and others.

Estimates suggest that the Sofia Municipality will continue to play a leading role in the country's economic map. The growing size of GDP and the second macroeconomic indicator - Gross Value Added - are indicators that the municipality will establish itself as the center of a region that is developing at a steady pace approaching those of some European regions.

The analysis contains projected output and the number of persons employed by economic sectors (Agrarian, Industry and Services).

Photo: People of Sofia