Territorially differentiated demographic forecasts

The survey presents demographic profiles with forecasts of 583 territorial urban units in Sofia Municipality. It was developed by Amadi EOOD on behalf of Sofiaplan in 2018. The analysis includes:

  • Quantitative parameters of the population according to the indicator "total number" - actual situation (2017) and forecasts until 2050.
  • Quality characteristics by specific age groups: 0-2 years, 3-6 years, 7-14 years, 15-18 years and over 65 years - condition and forecasts until 2050.

Data from the NSI and GD GRAO were used for the number of the population, the age status, as well as for its movement - number of births, deaths, recorded and written off from the registers in the settlements, ie for the natural and mechanical movement of the population. The forecasts are in three variants, the main one being the average realistic variant.

The analysis shows that the increase in the population in Sofia is mainly due to the influence of the mechanical growth. Natural increase has low values, and for most of the urban units it has a negative sign.

In 2017, with the highest number of new registered persons at the current address are: Studentski Grad  - Zapad with a total number of enrolled - 9390 people; Vitosha locality - Simeonovo HPP - 1175 persons; Mladost 3 - 1050 people and Mladost 1 - 988 people. Attractive for settlement are also Manastirski livadi, Lozenets, Ovcha kupel-sever, Gotse Delchev, Geo Milev.

The expected growth rates of the population over the next three decades - 2030 - 2040 and 2050 - are forecasted. High rates of development are envisaged in the urban planning units with a larger share of young population, the long-term territories and the regions that have undeveloped terrains for housing construction.